An analysis of the effectiveness of progressives

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An analysis of the effectiveness of progressives

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About the Author Some conservatives say modern liberals betrayed the earlier tradition, and some progressives agree.

Posted on January 6, by Scott Alexander [Epistemic status: Content warning for discussion of suicide, murder, and race] I.

There was a mass shooting — this time, in San Bernardino, California. And once again on Sunday, President Barack Obama called for measures that make it harder for would-be shooters to buy deadly firearms. The research on this is overwhelmingly clear.

No matter how you look at the data, more guns mean more gun deaths. Vox does the same thing here and here Gun deaths are a combined measure of gun homicides and gun suicides. Here is a graph of guns vs.

And here is a graph of guns vs. The relationship between gun ownership and homicide is An analysis of the effectiveness of progressives and appears negativethe relationship between gun ownership and suicide is strong and positive.

The entire effect Vox highlights in their graph is due to gun suicides, but they are using it to imply conclusions about gun homicides.

Guns And States | Slate Star Codex

I am not the first person to notice this. And Robert VerBruggen of National Review does the same analysis decomposing gun deaths into suicides and homicides, and like me finds no correlation with homicides. German Lopez of Vox responds here.

This is true, although given that Vox has done this time and time again for months on end and all VerBruggen is doing is correctly pointing out a flaw in their methods, it feels kind of like an isolated demand for rigor.

Lopez suggests the ones at the Harvard Injury Control Research Centerwhich has done several statistical analyses of gun violence. They list two such analyses comparing gun ownership versus homicide rates across US states: This study does indeed conclude that higher gun ownership rates are correlated with higher murder rates after adjusting for confounders.

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Furthermore, even after adjusting for confounders it finds in several age categories that higher gun ownership rates are correlated with higher non-gun homicide rates eg the rates at which people are murdered by knives or crowbars or whatever at p less than 0.

This is really suspicious! Unless guns are exerting some kind of malign pro-murder influence that makes people commit more knife murders, some sort of confounding influence has remained. The study gets its murder rate numbers from the National Center for Health Statistics, which seems like a trustworthy source.

This makes some intuitive sense. Among people who want to commit suicide, suppose a fixed percent prefer to use guns compared to other methods. In that case, the determining factor for whether or not they use a gun will be whether or not they have a gun. Hospitals diligently record statistics about suicide victims including method of suicide, so if our assumption holds this should be a decent proxy for gun ownership within a state.

When I repeat it with the real gun ownership data, all of these positive correlations disappear. Real gun ownership correlates very modestly — 0. For some reason, suicidal Southerners are much more likely to kill themselves with guns than suicidal people from the rest of the States, even when you control for whether they have a gun or not.

This is why they found higher homicide rates, including higher rates of non-gun homicide. They also have wised up to the fact that Southern-ness is important, and they include a dummy variable for it in their calculations.

They also control for non-gun crime rate, Gini coefficient, income, and alcohol use. They find that even after controlling for all of this stuff, there is still a significant correlation between gun ownership level and gun homicide rate.

Further, this time they are using good statistics, and there is not a significant correlation between gun ownership and non-gun-homicide rate. Further, there is a correlation between gun ownership and total homicide rate, suggesting that the gun-gun-homicide correlation was not just an artifact of people switching from inferior weapons to guns while still committing the same number of murders.

Major take-aways:

Further, this is robust to a lot of different decisions about what to control or not to control, and what to include or not to include. I repeated all of their analyses using two different sources of gun ownership data, a couple different sources of homicide and crime rate data, and a bunch of different plausible and implausible confounders — thanks a lot to Tumblr user su3su2u1 for walking me through some of the harder analyses.

I was able to replicate their results. Pro-gun researcher John Lott had many complaints about this studyincluding that it was insensitive to including DC and that it was based entirely on the questionable choice of controlling for robbery rate — but I was unable to replicate his concerns and found that the guns-homicide correlation remained even after DC was included and even when I chose a group of confounders not including robbery rate.

Overall I am about as sure of this study as I have ever been of any social science study, ie somewhat. However, I doubt the reverse causation aspect in this case. The study controlled for robbery rate; ie it was looking at whether guns predicted homicides above and beyond those that could be expected given the level of non-homicide crime.Progressive Era DBQ Sample Prompt: Evaluate the effectiveness of Progressive Era reformers and the federal government in bringing about change at the national level.

In your answer, be sure to analyze the successes and limitations of these efforts in the period AP® United States History Scoring Guidelines Form B Evaluate the effectiveness of Progressive Era reformers and the federal government in bringing about reform at the national level.

An analysis of the effectiveness of progressives

In your answer be sure to analyze the successes and AP® UNITED STATES HISTORY SCORING GUIDELINES (Form B) AP. The Effectiveness of Progressive Era Reformers and the Federal Government in Bringing About Reform at the National Level Introduction DBQ OUTLINE ON II.

Progressive Women a.

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Women's Suffrage Success: Women fought for their suffrage and won the right to vote with the 19th amendment Limitation: 19th. An Analysis of the Populist and Progressive Era - In the words of Thomas Jefferson, “A wise and frugal Government, which shall restrain men from injuring one another, which shall leave them otherwise free to regulate their own pursuits of industry and improvement, and shall not take from the mouth of labor the bread it has earned.

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